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Despite Media Hype, No Bounce for Obama in Swing States

September 11, 2012

Electoral Map for the 2012 Presidential Race:

Politico’s “Unnamed Sources” say Ohio is lost for Mitt Romney. Like hell it is. They say Obama got a serious bounce from the DNC. Like hell he did.

Whatever bounce Obama got was in the blue states. In the swing states, it’s still way too close to call. Today’s Rasmussen poll results show that in the eleven swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, which total 145 electoral votes, it’s Obama 46% and Romney 45%. In 2008, Obama won these states 53% to 46%.

So how does the MSM try to spin the evidence so Obama looks like he’s unbeatable? Let’s look at Ohio, for example. Politico reported (using uncredited sources, of course), that Ohio is lost for Romney:

“Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now.”

I didn’t know Axelrod and Plouffe were working for Romney, but hey, they’ll go where the money is.

But, as usual, Politico was relying on Obama-leaning polls to support their narrative; yesterday the PPP poll (which is always weighted toward Obama because of PPP’s affiliation with the SEIU) showed Obama up by five in Ohio.  Hmmm. According to the Gravis marketing poll taken last Tuesday, Romney was up three in Ohio. Who’s telling the truth?

Consider these:

Example #1.  On August 14, the PPP poll showed Obama up three in Ohio, while the same day Rasmussen Reports showed Romney and Obama tied.

Example #2: Last Monday PPP showed Obama tied with Romney in North Carolina, while the Elon University/Charlotte Observer poll, a local state poll, showed Romney up by four.

But Politico won’t be denied their mission to say whatever they can to disillusion Romney’s base, and they make no bones about using uncredited sources; as Politico reporter Jonathan Martin said last month when Politico quoted unnamed sources in a story about Republicans unhappy about the selection of Paul Ryan (what?????):

We were candid about the sourcing on that, as you mentioned, Howie, and basically say to our readers, ‘Look, folks don’t want to put their names [on] the charges. If you don’t want to read Politico, that’s fine.’

Every race in the swing states is close right now, and the unconscionable skewing of the polls by the MSM shouldn’t discourage Republicans. The MSM has lied before, they are lying now, and they will lie in the future. The Obama campaign has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Romney, they have the power of incumbency, and Romney simply is not going away. And all of this is before Romney has even attacked Obama in ads and the debates.

Hey, Dems, this show ain’t even close to over; we’re just getting warmed up.

http://www.brietbart.com

…………………………………………………

Did CNN Rig Its Own Poll?

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.

First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

I’ve seen others suggest that CNN pushes voters to identify with one party or the other, which may account for this. Although, CNN identifies the breakdown of sample numbers as X “registered Democrats” and Y “registered Republicans.” Other polls that push Independents to identify show their work. CNN should as well.

There is another, more serious concern, however, The second question of the poll asks Obama and Romney voters whether their vote is “for” their candidate or “against” the other candidate. The sample size for this question is reported to be (top of page 3):

BASED ON 351 LIKELY VOTERS WHO PLAN TO VOTE FOR OBAMA — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PT

And,

BASED ON 340 LIKELY VOTERS WHO PLAN TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY — SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5.5 PERCENTAGE PTS

Those numbers didn’t look right to me, considering the headline number reported in the poll. There were 709 Likely Voters in the sample. The 351 votes for Obama is 49.5%. The 340 votes for Romney is 47.9%. In other words, a 50-48 match-up. That’s a lot different than the 52-46 reported in the headlines. Consider: the question to Romney supporters samples more Likely Voters than he received in the head-to-head result.

What could be happening here is that these are the raw counts from the poll interviews, which CNN then “weighted” to reflect certain demographics, etc. Pollster do this often, but it usually results in very minor changes to the overall numbers. If this discrepancy is the result of CNN “weighting” their poll, it would reflect a 4 point swing in the overall results. That’s a very significant change in the outcome. Their weighting added 2 points to Obama’s support and erased 2 points from Romney’s. Combined with a D+5 sample, this is a 9-point edge for Obama, simply from the composition of the poll.

Again, it isn’t unusual to weight a poll, for very legitimate reasons. But if the weighting produces this big of a swing in the final results, you really ought to show your work. CNN doesn’t release its internal demos, but it absolutely needs to in this case. If they don’t, then they’ve just been caught with their thumb on the scale.

LINK

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160 Comments
  1. September 13, 2012 8:44 am

    SO, this means Obama knew about the attacks and refused to WARN American diplomats and the Ambassador about the danger. This should be enough for Hillary to get off the stage now before the finger pointing begins and she ends up holding the bag- Whether she knows it or not, she is going to end up in the sh*t.. if she doesn’t get off that Bus now.
    …………………………………

    Report: Egyptian Intelligence Warned of Embassy Attacks as Early as Sept 4

    Israeli sources have revealed that Egypt’s General Intelligence warned jihadists were planning attacks on U.S. and Israeli embassies as early as a week before they occurred on the anniversary of Al Qaeda’s 9/11 terror attacks.

    The report indicated that the group behind the attacks was Global Jihad. This group is now supsected in the deaths of 16 Egyptian border guards in Sinai — deaths for which some Egyptian officials originally blamed Israel.

    A letter from Egyptian intelligence warning of pending attacks was circulated to all Egyptian security posts on September 4th.

    U.S. President Barack Obama has not attended a daily intelligence briefing since September 5th.

    Breitbart.com

  2. moononpluto permalink
    September 13, 2012 2:11 pm

    WH clarifies Prez Obama saying Eygypt not an ally – say “did not anticipate the question”. Guess he shot first before aiming.

  3. moononpluto permalink
    September 13, 2012 2:40 pm

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-shot-first-and-aimed-later-when-he-said-egypt-was-not-ally_652292.html

    Yesterday the Obama made a pointed critique of Mitt Romney suggesting that he was unprepared to handle foreign policy because he “shoots first, aims later.” This Foreign Policy report of the President trying to walk back his strong statement on Egypt yesterday ought to give pause to anyone who took that critique seriously:

    President Barack Obama didn’t intend to signal any change in the U.S.-Egypt relationship last night when he said Egypt is not an “ally,” the White House told The Cable today.

    In an interview with Telemundo Wednesday night, Obama said that the U.S. relationship with the new Egyptian government was a “work in progress,” and emphasized that the United States is counting on the government of Egypt to better protect the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, which was attacked by protesters on Sept. 11.

    “I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we don’t consider them an enemy,” Obama said. “They’re a new government that is trying to find its way. They were democratically elected. I think that we are going to have to see how they respond to this incident.”

    One wonders whether his admittedly careless statement yesterday further ratcheted up tensions in Egypt while the situation in the region was still unfolding.

  4. September 13, 2012 3:19 pm

    “In an interview with Telemundo Wednesday night, Obama said that the U.S. relationship with the new Egyptian government was a “work in progress,” and emphasized that the United States is counting on the government of Egypt to better protect the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, which was attacked by protesters on Sept. 11.

    “I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we don’t consider them an enemy,” Obama said. “They’re a new government that is trying to find its way. They were democratically elected. I think that we are going to have to see how they respond to this incident.”

    One wonders whether his admittedly careless statement yesterday further ratcheted up tensions in Egypt while the situation in the region was still unfolding.”
    ………………………

    WOW- Obama talks like they threw a rock through an embassy window. They murdered Americans and should be brought to justice and made to suffer for it-
    Withhold ALL the funding to the seven countries protesting. They bite the hand that feeds them and are rewarded by the US with billions in aide.. Something wrong with the State Dept’s priorities.. when people are starving in our own country.

  5. September 13, 2012 5:21 pm

    You’ve got to be kidding!!!
    …………………………..

    U.S. Marines defending the American embassy in Egypt were not permitted by the State Department to carry live ammunition, limiting their ability to respond to attacks like those this week on the U.S. consulate in Cairo.

    http://freebeacon.com/reports-marines-not-permitted-live-ammo/

  6. September 13, 2012 5:37 pm

    Ohio Miners Turn on Obama

    miners/ohio

    Hundreds of coal miners and their families stand in line while waiting to attend a rally at the Century Mine near Beallsville, Ohio, for Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. (41)

    miners-ohio

    Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney greets coal miners during a campaign rally at American Energy Corportation in Beallsville, Ohio. Mitt Romney is wrapping up his multi state bus tour with campaign events in Ohio. (Toledo Blade)

    http://nation.foxnews.com/coal-miners/2012/08/20/ohio-miners-turn-obama

  7. September 13, 2012 7:26 pm

    WOW! Great pix!

  8. September 13, 2012 7:27 pm

    I don’t know if this is happening to anyone else but when I try to get to the bottom of the comments thread the page starts going nuts -auto scrolling up and down and it’s hard to get the cursor in the comment box.

    Just an FYI

  9. September 13, 2012 7:50 pm

    It’s happening to me too- an indication it’s time for a new post and over 150 comments.

    There will be a new page up later tonight..

  10. September 13, 2012 8:52 pm

    NEW ARTICLE IS UP

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